2012 Outlook Remains Positive For U.S. Lodging Industry | PKF Reports
Friday 18 November 2011
PKF
Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) has released their preliminary Hotel
Horizons® updated forecast for the U.S. lodging industry. Based on
performance data through September of 2011 (provided by Smith Travel
Research), and Moody's Analytics' October 2011 domestic economic
forecast, PKF-HR believes that RevPAR in the U.S. will increase by 8.1
percent in 2011, and rise another 6.2 percent in 2012.
PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) has released their preliminary Hotel Horizons®
updated forecast for the U.S. lodging industry. Based on performance
data through September of 2011 (provided by Smith Travel Research), and
Moody's Analytics' October 2011 domestic economic forecast, PKF-HR
believes that RevPAR in the U.S. will increase by 8.1 percent in 2011, and rise another 6.2 percent in 2012.
"The ongoing recovery of U.S. hotels in 2011 has continued to
slightly outpace our forecasts. The 8.1 percent revised RevPAR forecast
for the current year represents a 90 basis point increase over our
previous forecast released earlier this year," said R. Mark Woodworth,
President of PKF-HR.
Because of the accelerated performance in 2011, the PKF-HR forecast
change in RevPAR for 2012 has been lowered 110 basis points from 90 days
ago to still-attractive 6.2 percent. "We remain very positive about the
prospects for 2012. By the end of next year, the industry RevPAR level
will be where we always thought it would be. It's just getting there
more quickly, thus the reduced year-over-year percentage change."
PKF-HR's optimistic outlook for lodging performance in 2012 is rooted
in the economic forecasts of Moody's Analytics. "Real personal income
is projected to rise, and the most important elements of the nation's
Gross Domestic Product (consumer spending and business investment) are
anticipated to continue to grow," noted John B. (Jack) Corgel Ph.D., the
Robert C. Baker Professor of Real Estate at the Cornell Hotel School
and Senior Advisor to PKF-HR. "Most encouraging is the recent positive
news regarding employment. Each report on unemployment claims and other
measures provides signals of gradual improvement. A brightening of the
employment scene supports the floor on our forecasts of hotel
performance."
The December editions of Hotel Horizons® are scheduled to be distributed early in the month. They will contain lodging forecasts for the six national chain-scales, six national location types, and 50 major markets.
About PKF CONSULTING USA
Headquartered in San Francisco, PKF Consulting USA (www.pkfc.com)
is an advisory and real estate firm specializing in the hospitality
industry. PKF Consulting USA is owned by FirstService Corporation and is
a subsidiary of Colliers International. The firm operates three
companies: PKF Consulting USA, PKF Hospitality Research, Colliers
International Hotels. The firm has offices in New York, Boston,
Indianapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Atlanta, Asheville,
Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Bozeman,
Miami, Portland, Sacramento, and San Francisco.
PKF Consulting USA offers hotel appraisal and hotel valuation services, hotel market studies, hospitality litigation support, and hotel advisory services. Colliers International Hotels offers hotel brokerage and hotel transaction services. PKF Hospitality Research produces Hotel Horizons®, an econometrically based hotel forecast, BenchmarkerSM, a customized comparative hotel benchmark report, and Annual Trends® in the Hotel Industry, a historical hotel financial publication featuring rich hotel statistics, as well as hotel research services.
