Here is another insightful analysis of hotel industry performance and forecast. But unlike many industry analysts, Mark Woodworth and his team at PKF Hospitality Research forecast the effect of how Washington deals with the "fiscal cliff" deadline and related budget issues.
What happens if the automatic budget cuts currently the law of the land kick in because Congress can't agree on an alternative course of action? What happens if they "kick the cliff down the road."?
The results may surprise you. One scenario likely leads to a recession in the first half of 2013, but in any event Woodworth and his PKF team say " Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry."
What happens to the hospitality industry with certain likely political and economic scenarios?
PKF presentation and highlights on US Lodging Outlook
We asked Mark Woodworth to summarize a few of the key thoughts he presented at The Lodging Conference in Phoenix a few days, ago and here is what he said:
1. Industry fundamentals will continue to move in a positive direction, although the pace of improvement has begun to moderate. This will persist through most of 2013; unless
2. The fiscal cliff becomes a reality. In this case, recession hits in Q1 2013 and industry RevPAR for the year will be flat (see slides in the attached deck that address the "Fiscal Cliff" and "Kick the Cliff" scenarios.
3. If our leadership in Washington "Kicks the Cliff" down the road, 2013 will actually be better than our expected case scenario, although the longer term outlook for the overall economy is diminished.
4. Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry.
For a full copy of Mark's presentation, please see www.HotelLawyer.com/Resource Center/Hotel Industry Presentations
Mr. Woodworth is an Executive Vice President of PKF Consulting ("PKF/C"), and President of PKF Hospitality Research, an affiliate of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is based in the Atlanta office of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is responsible for all of PKF/C's activities in the Southeast and Caribbean.
Mr. Woodworth is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a lecturer at Cornell University and Georgia State University, among others. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Atlanta Convention & Visitors Bureau, the Finance Committee of the United Way of Metropolitan Atlanta and the Council at the Henderson Mill Elementary School. He also recently completed a three-year term on the Board of Advisors for the Center for Hospitality Research at Cornell University.
Mr. Woodworth holds both a B.S. and Master's Degree from Cornell University's School of Hotel Administration. He also served on the faculty of the Center for Professional Development at Cornell for 12 years, where he continues to guest lecture. He and his wife Mary Kay, along with their children Harry, Will, Sam and Savannah, reside in Atlanta.
For more information, please contact Mark Woodworth at mark.woodworth@pkfc.com or
+1 (404) 842-1150.
This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We've done more than $60 billion of hotel transactions and have developed innovative solutions to unlock value from hotels. Who's your hotel lawyer?
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